March 2025 Associations, Business & Management
Predicting your numbers for better business By AmericanHort staff

Forecasting models help you run your business more efficiently

No one can predict the future. Even so, a business can come close to hitting its projections for costs, sales, profits and more — no crystal ball necessary. How? It takes a commitment to forecasting.

If you’ve ever been responsible for a full physical inventory of your business, you know that success comes down to pre-inventory preparation. That same principle applies to forecasting. With thorough knowledge of past procedures and transactions, a firm grasp of the present and an idea of what trends are in play, a business can nearly lead itself to the expenditures and sales it desires. While no business forecast can be 100% accurate, a managed and maintained forecast creates a trusted roadmap for businesses to follow.

Ken Lane, owner of business and strategy consultancy Hathaway & Lane Direct, has worked with dozens of growers, nurseries and other horticultural categories for more than two decades to create reliable forecasts for their businesses. Lane recently collaborated with AmericanHort to produce the Forecasting Mastery Series, a threesession online course covering the nuts and bolts of business forecasting.

“I’m here to give you tools, knowledge and thought processes so that you can run your business better,” Lane said in the Forecasting Mastery Series introduction. “The best business is the business that forecasts itself as accurately as possible.”

WHY FORECAST?

Lane said that forecasting in the horticultural industry is difficult, made more so by the fact that the sector handles live goods. The COVID pandemic and unprecedented demand it created also threw a wrench in creating trustworthy forecasts in ensuing years. However difficult it is, Lane said, consider this quote from Winston Churchill: “I’d rather have a forecast today that is very good than a forecast in three weeks that’s perfect.”

“In the past couple years, there’s been a lot of confusion around the process for forecasting and the importance of it in the horticultural industry,” Lane said. “COVID had turned everything topsy-turvy, and it’s just tougher and tougher to do. Yet it’s more and more important to do, especially as costs of goods and materials go up. There’s real pressure on your bottom line. The better your forecast is, the better your business is.”

THREE KEY COMPONENTS

As your operation churns away with spring production and all the data that generates, make sure to gather pertinent information to strengthen current and future forecasts now. Lane shared three key components during the Forecasting Mastery Series’ first session that explain the urgency in creating forecasting models.

Start with the end in mind

One of author and businessman Steven Covey’s seven habits of highly effective people, “Start with the end in mind,” is Lane’s first step to creating a reliable roadmap for businesses to follow. The result of your forecast — the goals you want to achieve — provides the destination to which this roadmap of a forecast takes you. With no destination, there’s no real step-bystep process to take you where you’d like your business to be.

It takes consensus

Forecasting is not done in a vacuum. Data from all aspects of the business go into creating this roadmap. In fact, the more data, the better your forecast will be. A great forecast takes everything into consideration, from strategic planning and marketing teams to operations and sales.

Know your KPIs

Key performance indicators (KPIs) are the metrics that truly matter to your business, and each department has its own data to add to the forecast’s strength. “You need to know which of your KPIs is going to drive your best success,” Lane said. “Success is defined by your P&L. What’s going to have the best impact on your P&L, what’s the history of these KPIs, when was the best year for those KPIs and what can you do to improve them to improve your company’s bottom line?”

Ready to master forecasting for your business? Access the full series any time at americanhort.org/forecastingmastery-series. AmericanHort members save when registering for all three classes. Not a member yet? Join AmericanHort today at americanhort.org/membership.